The Distance

The Distance

On Election Day In Virginia Tomorrow

Set your expectations low

Matt Osborne's avatar
Matt Osborne
Nov 03, 2025
∙ Paid
Abigail Spanberger (L) and Winsome Earle-Sears (R)

The polling scientists in any election always give us a parallax view of their opinion snapshots, as they all use different weights and assumptions and wording in their questions. While the polls vary in Virginia, not one of them has shown Republican Winsome Earle-Sears winning the governor’s race.

All the polls — every last one — have shown her losing by some number ranging from nearly 12 points according to one college poll to 5 points in an independent poll. Put all the surveys together, and Democrat Abigail Spanberger enjoys a ~7 point average polling advantage in the final hours before Election Day.

As I explained back in August, when I first noticed the race heating up, transgender ‘inclusion’ policies that allow naked pedophiles in girls’ public school locker rooms and punish children for correctly discerning each others’ sex were fueling a surge by the Republican.

The race gained a measure of national notoriety when Sears spoke…

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