The Era Of 'This Is Not A Debate' Ended In The Virginia GOV Debate Last Week

And the effect is already showing up in the polls

A survey of 1,066 Virginia voters taken just after last week’s debate between Republican Winsom Earle-Sears and Democrat Abigail Spanberger shows Sears catching up to her opponent. According to the Trafalgar Group, the gap between the candidates has narrowed to 2.6 percent, less than the margin of error, a statistical tie. A September poll by Trafalgar had shown Spanberger leading by 7.1 points.

Two months ago, Spanberger had a 12-point lead over her opponent. The Trafalgar survey data trends very white and female, the demographic intersection where Spanberger ought to still have a comfortable lead. As I said in my piece for Genspect on the Virginia race last week, I expect Sears to overperform on Election Day, even if I do not expect her to win. Now Trafalgar Group says that she might just win, after all.

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During the first half of the debate, Earle-Sears interrupted long answers from Spanberger to take note that her opponent was not giving clear responses to ‘yes or no’ questions. Sears received criticism from her own side in the ‘instant feedback’ of social media, and also from the moderators, but it turned out to be a devastating tactic.

During the second half of the debate, the local news moderators began to call out Spanberger’s non-responses. Debate was therefore had on topics where ‘this is NOT a debate!’ was the rule of the day — until now. Something has snapped in Virginia, and the days of ‘no debate’ are over. Video and analysis are below the paywall for premium subscribers.