The Global Gender Climate Is Changing Even If Your Local Gender Weather Still Varies

The future is already here, just not evenly distributed

“It appears that trans and queer are going out of fashion among young people, especially in elite settings”, Eric Kaufmann, Professor of Politics at the University of Buckingham, said in findings released two weeks ago. College freshmen are less likely to identify as part of the rainbow than seniors on the same campus. “To the extent that the youngest represent the leading edge of new trends, this suggests that trans, bisexual and queer identities are declining in popularity with each new cohort.”

While “the share of non-binary, bisexual and queer young people rose after 2010 and fell after 2023”, at least “part of the decline in trans identification was compositional, arising because there were fewer students with anxiety and depression in 2025 than in 2023”. Mental health simply improved, post-covid. “Trump, Biden and the ‘vibe shift’ away from woke in the elite culture appear to have had little effect on the gender and sexual identities of students”, Kaufmann concludes.

Only time wi…